Vill den enda ringen varit stängd dold om Bilbo inte hade blivit uppvänt?

Ringen försökte aktivt komma tillbaka till sin sanna mästare, Sauron. Den hade övergivit Gollum i hopp om att bli upptagen av någon som är mer sannolikt att få tillbaka den till Sauron, förmodligen en Goblin eller Orc.

LOTR, bok I, Ch. 2 Skuggan av det förflutna :

‘A Ring of Power looks after itself, Frodo.It may slip off treacherously, but its keeper never abandons it. At most he plays with the idea of handing it on to someone else’s care – and that only at an early stage, when it first begins to grip. But as far as I know Bilbo alone in history has ever gone beyond playing, and really done it. He needed all my help, too. And even so he would never have just forsaken it, or cast it aside. It was not Gollum, Frodo, but the Ring itself that decided things. The Ring left him.’

‘What, just in time to meet Bilbo?’ said Frodo. ‘Wouldn’t an Orc have suited it better?’

‘It is no laughing matter,’ said Gandalf. ‘Not for you. It was the strangest event in the whole history of the Ring so far: Bilbo’s arrival just at that time, and putting his hand on it, blindly, in the dark.

‘There was more than one power at work, Frodo. The Ring was trying to get back to its master. It had slipped from Isildur’s hand and betrayed him; then when a chance came it caught poor Déagol, and he was murdered; and after that Gollum, and it had devoured him. It could make no further use of him: he was too small and mean; and as long as it stayed with him he would never leave his deep pool again. So now, when its master was awake once more and sending out his dark thought from Mirkwood, it abandoned Gollum. Only to be picked up by the most unlikely person imaginable: Bilbo from the Shire!

‘Behind that there was something else at work, beyond any design of the Ring-maker. I can put it no plainer than by saying that Bilbo was meant to find the Ring, and not by its maker. In which case you also were meant to have it. And that may be an encouraging thought.’

Den ena ringen hade förmågan att omvandla sin ägare till (i praktiken) en wraith, eller i alla fall någon form av icke-fysisk vara under fullständig och direkt kontroll av Sauron:

A mortal, Frodo, who keeps one of the Great Rings, does not die, but he does not grow or obtain more life, he merely continues, until at last every minute is a weariness. And if he often uses the Ring to make himself invisible, he fades: he becomes in the end invisible permanently, and walks in the twilight under the eye of the dark power that rules the Rings. Yes, sooner or later—later, if he is strong or well-meaning to begin with, but neither strength nor good purpose will last—sooner or later the dark power will devour him.

( Ringenes Herre , Bok I, Kapitel 2, "Skuggan av det förflutna")

Detta hade inte hänt ännu till Gollum, främst för att (i mörkret hela tiden) han inte hade ett starkt behov av att använda ringen för att bli osynlig; men det framgår av vad Gandalf säger att det oundvikligen skulle ha påverkat honom på detta sätt. Han skulle inte ha dog per se , men han skulle ha blivit förbrukad av Saurons makt. Hobbits är ovanligt resistenta mot ringen, men inte helt resistenta.

Så snart Gollum skulle ha blivit helt överbryggad av ringen - det kan ha tagit hundratals år, men skulle utan tvekan ha hänt om Gollum inte hade förlorat ringen. När det hände, skulle Gollum helt under Saurons kontroll ha tagit ringen till honom.

Men eftersom Gollum förlorade ringen, vad skulle det hända?

Det fanns faktiskt goblins som gick ner till Gollums sjö:

[Gollum] just throttled [goblins] from behind, if they ever came down alone anywhere near the edge of the water, while he was prowling about. They very seldom did, for they had a feeling that something unpleasant was lurking down there, down at the very roots of the mountain. They had come on the lake, when they were tunnelling down long ago, and they found they could go no further; so there their road ended in that direction, and there was no reason to go that way—unless the Great Goblin sent them. Sometimes he took a fancy for fish from the lake, and sometimes neither goblin nor fish came back.

( Hobbit , Kapitel 5, "Riddles In The Dark")

Således är det helt möjligt - även sannolikt, med tanke på Rings verksamhet - så småningom skulle en av dem ha kommit över ringen. På den tiden, eftersom goblinerna redan befinner sig under kontroll av Sauron, skulle Ringen snabbt komma till Sauron.

Någon annanstans i Ringens förenings början, förklarar Gandalf till Frodo att han sökte efter Gollum, men Orkerna hittade honom först, de torterade honom tills han sa "Shire. Baggins", som ledde Nazgul till Shire. Så om Bilbo inte tog ringen skulle den ha tagits av fienden.