Jag kan inte kommentera de statistiska metoderna - det var inte mitt bästa ämne i skolan.
Númenor
Númenor fanns inte inte i första åldern; det landet och dess invånares förlängda livslängd var en gåva till en viss delmängd av män, tackande dem för deras hjälp under krigshandlingen:
It is said by the Eldar that Men came into the world in the time of the Shadow of Morgoth, and they fell swiftly under his dominion; for he sent his emissaries among them, and they listened to his evil and cunning words, and they worshipped the Darkness and yet feared it. But there were some that turned from evil and left the lands of their kindred, and wandered ever westward; for they had heard a rumour that in the West there was a light which the Shadow could not dim. The servants of Morgoth pursued them with hatred, and their ways were long and hard; yet they came at last to the lands that look upon the Sea, and they entered Beleriand in the days of the War of the Jewels. The Edain these were named in the Sindarin tongue; and they became friends and allies of the Eldar, and did deeds of great valour in the war against Morgoth.
[...]
To the Fathers of Men of the three faithful houses rich reward also was given. Eönwë came among them and taught them; and they were given wisdom and power and life more enduring than any others of mortal race have possessed. A land was made for the Edain to dwell in, neither part of Middle-earth nor of Valinor, for it was sundered from either by a wide sea; yet it was nearer to Valinor. It was raised by Ossë out of the depths of the Great Water, and it was established by Aulë and enriched by Yavanna; and the Eldar brought thither flowers and fountains out of Tol Eressëa. That land the Valar called Andor, the Land of Gift
The Silmarillion IV Akallabêth
Döende kungar
Frågan diskuterar möjligheten att numenóreankonerna kan ha levt kortare liv (väl, kortare än vad de annars skulle ha) tack vare att de hade våldsamma dödsfall, men det är inte så.
Númenor var bara inte inblandad i mycket strider. Den första stora militära konflikten i andra ålder var Elvets och Saurons krig , som främst blev kämpat av älvorna och Sauron (skulle du inte veta det). Númenóreans var mycket sällan involverade i den konflikten; de hjälpte till att hålla Grey Havens, och fullständigt dirigerade Saurons styrkor i en senare kamp:
In 1695, when Sauron invaded Eriador, Gil-galad called on Númenor for aid. Then Tar-Minastir the King sent out a great navy; but it was delayed, and did not reach the coasts of Middle-earth until the year 1700. By that time Sauron had mastered all Eriador, save only besieged Imladris, and had reached the line of the River Lhûn. He had summoned more forces which were approaching from the south-east, and were indeed in Enedwaith at the Crossing of Tharbad, which was only lightly held. Gil-galad and the Númenóreans were holding the Lhûn in desperate defence the Grey Havens, when in the very nick of time the great armament of Tar-Minastir came in; and Sauron's host was heavily defeated and driven back. The Númenórean admiral Ciryatur sent part of his ships to make a landing further to the south.
Sauron was driven away south-east after great slaughter at Sarn Ford (the crossing of the Baranduin); and though strengthened by his force at Tharbad he suddenly found a host of the Númenóreans again in his rear, for Ciryatur had put a strong force ashore at the mouth of the Gwathló (Greyflood), "where there was a small Númenórean harbour." [This was Vinyalondë of Tar-Aldarion, afterwards called Lond Daer; see Appendix D. p. 274.] In the Battle of the Gwathló Sauron was routed utterly and he himself only narrowly escaped.
Unfinished Tales Part 2: The Second Age Chapter IV "The History of Galadriel and Celeborn"
Och det var ganska mycket det. Oavslutade Tales har också ett kapitel som ägnas åt Númenors kungar, och den enda som dödade i striden var Ar-Pharazôn, den som försökte invadera Aman.
Oaturliga dödsfall ökade sannolikt efter detta, eftersom den överlevande Númenórean etablerade kungarna i Gondor och Arnor, men ingen av de personer som vi har bekräftat livslängder för. Elendil och hans trofasta, de som överlevde förstörelsen av Númenor, levde alla för att kämpa i Last Alliance, som var den andra (och sista) stora konflikten under andra åldern.
Den tredje åldern
Det här är när dessa onaturliga dödsfall börjar komma in, som Isildur och hans arvingar konsoliderar sina kungarier och ansiktsmotstånd från lokalbefolkningen.
Men vi måste också komma ihåg Valarens blekande nåd. De ursprungliga Númenórean Kings fick en lång livslängd, men det började förkortas, eftersom de blev mer och mer fientliga mot Valaren och Eldar:
In those days the Shadow grew deeper upon Númenor; and the lives of the Kings of the House of Elros waned because of their rebellion, but they hardened their hearts the more against the Valar. And the nineteenth king took the sceptre of his fathers, and he ascended the throne in the name of Adûnakhôr, Lord of the West, forsaking the Elven-tongues and forbidding their use in his hearing.
The Silmarillion IV Akallabêth
Den här blekningen skulle inte sluta förrän Aragorn tog tronen. Trots att människornas liv i tredje ålder var mycket längre än vad vi skulle förvänta oss av ett medeltida samhälle, var de fortfarande kortare än i andra ålder men med mycket färre blodiga och destruktiva krig än första ålder.