Inte särskilt sannolikt

Det finns några problem med denna teori. Saker som inte verkligen lägger till när det gäller kronologi.

Nattkungen var aktiv när det inte fanns några drakar

Först och främst, som @Agon noterade i kommentarerna, var wights och White Walkers redan aktiva under den första säsongen, innan draken föddes i Essos.

Det är lite svårt att bedöma detta ordentligt, eftersom storylinerna inte nödvändigtvis synkroniseras. Men baserat på tidningarna om Danys framsteg med Dothraki i kungens landning vet vi att drakarna åtminstone föddes efter att Ned Stark gick till King's Landing. Eftersom Ned exekverar Will när han fortfarande är på Winterfell vet vi att prologen ägde rum innan drakar föddes. Och sedan en vit walker visade sig där är det säkert att säga att han redan vidtar åtgärder vid den tiden.

The Other slid forward on silent feet. In its hand was a longsword like none that Will had ever seen. No human metal had gone into the forging of that blade. It was alive with moonlight, translucent, a shard of crystal so thin that it seemed almost to vanish when seen edge-on. There was a faint blue shimmer to the thing, a ghost-light that played around its edges, and somehow Will knew it was sharper than any razor.

Ser Waymar met him bravely. "Dance with me then." He lifted his sword high over his head, defiant. His hands trembled from the weight of it, or perhaps from the cold. Yet in that moment, Will thought, he was a boy no longer, but a man of the Night's Watch.

The Other halted. Will saw its eyes; blue, deeper and bluer than any human eyes, a blue that burned like ice. They fixed on the longsword trembling on high, watched the moonlight running cold along the metal. For a heartbeat he dared to hope.
Prologue, a Game of Thrones

En annan indikation på att de vita vandrare var aktiva före draken är massan av den vildlösa armén av Mance Rayder. Mance tog år att samla sin armé.

Mance had spent years assembling this vast plodding host, talking to this clan mother and that magnar, winning one village with sweet words and another with a song and a third with the edge of his sword, making peace between Harma Dogshead and the Lord o' Bones, between the Hornfoots and the Nightrunners, between the walrus men of the Frozen Shore and the cannibal clans of the great ice rivers, hammering a hundred different daggers into one great spear, aimed at the heart of the Seven Kingdoms. He had no crown nor scepter, no robes of silk and velvet, but it was plain to Jon that Mance Rayder was a king in more than name.
Jon II, a Storm of Swords

Nu är det inte i sig själv så intressant, men anledningen till det är ...

"Not at your hands." Mance studied Jon's face. "You saw the Fist of the First Men. You know what happened there. You know what we are facing."

"The Others . . ."

"They grow stronger as the days grow shorter and the nights colder. First they kill you, then they send your dead against you. The giants have not been able to stand against them, nor the Thenns, the ice river clans, the Hornfoots."

"Nor you?"

"Nor me." There was anger in that admission, and bitterness too deep for words. "Raymun Redbeard, Bael the Bard, Gendel and Gorne, the Horned Lord, they all came south to conquer, but I've come with my tail between my legs to hide behind your Wall." He touched the horn again. "If I sound the Horn of Winter, the Wall will fall. Or so the songs would have me believe. There are those among my people who want nothing more . . ."
Jon X, a Storm of Swords

Mance erövring är endast ett mål och ett mål. För att få wildlings till den säkra sidan av väggen. Varför skulle han ha börjat för år sedan, om de vita vandrare inte var något hot ännu?

Nattkonungen var inte aktiv när det fanns drakar

Fram till omkring 200 år sedan fanns drakar i världen, men de vita vandrarena var redan fallna i minnena. Detta i sig är inte solidt bevis, men det är definitivt en indikation, tillsammans med föregående punkt, att det inte förefaller vara någon korrelation mellan drakar som befinner sig och Night King-attacker.

Det finns ingen indikation på att draken påverkar någon annan magi än eld

Hittills är alla instanser av magi som är starkare eldrelaterade. Eftersom det överliggande temat i serien är juxtapositionen av is och eld, kan vi inte bara anta att Night King skulle påverkas också.

Listan är ganska lång: Varning, potentiella bokförstörare framåt )

• Pyromancers i King's Landing:

Tyrion was growing impatient. Ser Jacelyn Bywater was likely here by now, and Ironhand misliked waiting. "Yes, you have secret spells; how splendid. What of them?"

"They, hmmm, seem to be working better than they were." Hallyne smiled weakly. "You don't suppose there are any dragons about, do you?"

"Not unless you found one under the Dragonpit. Why?"

"Oh, pardon, I was just remembering something old Wisdom Pollitor told me once, when I was an acolyte. I'd asked him why so many of our spells seemed, well, not as effectual as the scrolls would have us believe, and he said it was because magic had begun to go out of the world the day the last dragon died."
Tyrion XI, a Clash of Kings - emphasis mine

• En Firemage i Qarth:

When the fiery ladder stood forty feet high, the mage leapt forward and began to climb it, scrambling up hand over hand as quick as a monkey. Each rung he touched dissolved behind him, leaving no more than a wisp of silver smoke. When he reached the top, the ladder was gone and so was he.

(...)

"Half a year gone, that man could scarcely wake fire from dragonglass. He had some small skill with powders and wildfire, sufficient to entrance a crowd while his cutpurses did their work. He could walk across hot coals and make burning roses bloom in the air, but he could no more aspire to climb the fiery ladder than a common fisherman could hope to catch a kraken in his nets."

Dany looked uneasily at where the ladder had stood. Even the smoke was gone now, and the crowd was breaking up, each man going about his business. In a moment more than a few would find their purses flat and empty. "And now?"

"And now his powers grow, Khaleesi. And you are the cause of it."
Daenerys III, a Clash of Kings

• Thoros of Myr, som kan återuppliva Lord Beric Dondarrion:

"I have no magic, child. Only prayers. That first time, his lordship had a hole right through him and blood in his mouth, I knew there was no hope. So when his poor torn chest stopped moving, I gave him the good god's own kiss to send him on his way. I filled my mouth with fire and breathed the flames inside him, down his throat to lungs and heart and soul. The last kiss it is called, and many a time I saw the old priests bestow it on the Lord's servants as they died. I had given it a time or two myself, as all priests must. But never before had I felt a dead man shudder as the fire filled him, nor seen his eyes come open. It was not me who raised him, my lady. It was the Lord. R'hllor is not done with him yet. Life is warmth, and warmth is fire, and fire is God's and God's alone."
Arya VII, a Storm of Swords

• Beric Dondarrion lyfter Catelyn Stark:

Lady Stoneheart lowered her hood and unwound the grey wool scarf from her face. Her hair was dry and brittle, white as bone. Her brow was mottled green and grey, spotted with the brown blooms of decay. The flesh of her face clung in ragged strips from her eyes down to her jaw. Some of the rips were crusted with dried blood, but others gaped open to reveal the skull beneath.

Her face, Brienne thought. Her face was so strong and handsome, her skin so smooth and soft. "Lady Catelyn?" Tears filled her eyes. "They said . . . they said that you were dead."

"She is," said Thoros of Myr. "The Freys slashed her throat from ear to ear. When we found her by the river she was three days dead. Harwin begged me to give her the kiss of life, but it had been too long. I would not do it, so Lord Beric put his lips to hers instead, and the flame of life passed from him to her. And . . . she rose. May the Lord of Light protect us. She rose."
Brienne VII, a Feast for Crows

• Ett obsidian ljus tänds vid citadellet:

The candle was unpleasantly bright. There was something queer about it. The flame did not flicker, even when Archmaester Marwyn closed the door so hard that papers blew off a nearby table. The light did something strange to colors too. Whites were bright as fresh-fallen snow, yellow shone like gold, reds turned to flame, but the shadows were so black they looked like holes in the world. Sam found himself staring. The candle itself was three feet tall and slender as a sword, ridged and twisted, glittering black. "Is that . . . ?"

". . . obsidian," said the other man in the room, a pale, fleshy, pasty-faced young fellow with round shoulders, soft hands, close-set eyes, and food stains on his robes.

"Call it dragonglass." Archmaester Marwyn glanced at the candle for a moment. "It burns but is not consumed."
Samwell V, a Feast for Crows

Alla dessa exempel är magiska händelser som plötsligt möjliggjordes genom drakarens återkomst. Lägg märke till hur alla är relaterade till eld, och ingen av dem är relaterade till is.